Currently viewing the tag: "Prediction and prevention"

A desired change

To be successful in the future we need to understand that the landscapes are quickly changing and so we have to develop our capabilities to navigate.

The future is an open sea that will oblige us to re-evaluate our skills continuously and quickly rearrange the resources available to develop and update those skills.

The future will be, above all, adaptation and lifelong learning.

Most of us prepared hard for the future we expected, and yet things aren’t working out as we had planned. That’s true if you have been laid off, are a recent college graduate who feels underemployed, or are a manager facing constant upheavals at work, even if you are the boss, because you are wrestling with disruptive technologies and new competitors who seemingly come out of nowhere to upend your industry.”

Even in other age groups to build a future that one day we imagine we can realize, collapses by the strength of the storms of change and uncertainty, and so, more and more, learning is a value of very long duration.

Yesterday in the evening and today during the night and morning, my country was surprised, albeit with some mixing prediction, by very strong winds and intense rain. It were released some alerts and we only talk about the “very bad weather” but about the consequences we only heard after the storm.

Throughout the country people report the effects of the storm, but what most affected here at home was a seemingly “simple thing”:

“The land, where was installed the water motor house, has collapsed and swallowed the house and equipment”.

Moral of this story: we have been preparing for some time now the best conditions to expand the cultivation of tomatoes and peppers at the “Horta do Sol” and we were going to cultivate new land adjacent to the engine house.


Now we have the unknown (dimension of the damages) and with it the uncertainty!

“‘Prepare, don’t Predict’ means setting your business up to withstand whatever the future can throw at you, for good or bad, to defend against and exploit chance. Prepare, don’t predict means do not just be ready for that which can be expected from what we know, but consider even the happening that is very rare but has very big consequences if it happens. The expected or predictable do not have the same size effects on a business as the unexpected and unpredictable.”

Things that will affect are not yet properly determined but luckily there are some alternatives, as a result of some preparation for the unknown.

We know that there are great principles that guide us to think that the world happens as we are waiting to happen, but we also know that there are factors not controlled that can turn right on a surprise.

We know, or we think we know that the laws of supply and demand work to establish the prices when the time of the harvest will arrive.

We know that if we do not take precautions to the consolidation of water reserves we have exaggerated risks in cultures exploration.

We know that there are laws of probabilities that can indicate to us how likely is the chance of something happening, but did we know to ask questions?

In environments where change is rapid and steady, if we want to learn throughout life, asking questions is the first step to learn and solve problems.

Routine work may one day be performed by very reliable machines and available 24 hours a day and at that time we will be the people of projects.

Will we be competent in the approach to these projects?

Will we know how to deal and lead to change?

If we want to be prepared for the future (uncertain) instead of the forecast (revenue to solve problems) it will be good to start thinking about autonomy, in collaboration, tolerance to ambiguity, empathy, happiness and passion for what we do.


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